I’ll take uncertainty for $5000!
Official curmudgeon Francis W. Porretto raises some interesting points about certainties. I picked out a few of his points and pontifications to respond to:
An honest, intelligent man who’s properly humble before the evidence so copiously provided by reality cannot help but know that certainty about any general proposition is a highly risky posture. Yet it is a feature of our time that those who have the least claim even to low-level factual knowledge about a subject are usually those most certain about their opinions on it.
This is stone truth. I wrote a rant about Hurricane Katrina and the military response earlier. I was certain that my rant was 100% justified. Yet when I was provided copious evidence to the contrary, I realized that my rant lossed most of it’s thunder. So I backed off and got myself more educated on the situation. Yes, I took a risk being so certain but I took my lil’ lump and learned from it. But a sizable number of people would still be hold on to that rant like it’s the Universal and Omnipotent Truth and lash out at anyone providing contrary evidence. Low-level knowledge + certainty = a pimp slap waiting to happen.
Perhaps those who purvey cheap certainties believe themselves to have special insight into the minds of others. Or perhaps they’re simply untroubled by the possibility that they’re wrong. In any case, their certainty can be quite disturbing, particularly when the evidence that they’re wildly wrong is ready to hand.
Represent Francis my man! I’ve been married to my wife almost 12 years (hook a brutha up on his December anniversay, y’all). We’ve been through alot together. We have three jellyroll brained, yet wonderful children. Should I be able to say “my wife loves me no matter what” with 100% certainty? Uh. Like no! I know my wife very well but we all have that part of ourselves that is top secret, private, with no admittance. What if I do something that challenges that place in my wife that she no longer loves me? I’m looking real squishy with my earlier certainty. And that certainty wasn’t cheap. Now look at many movie critics and all of their cheap certainties. They’ll tell you that a movie is pretentious, banal, beautiful, serious, mindless, etc with absolute certainty. Nevermind that its his or her opinion. And because of there “position” they influence people more often than we give them credit for. Why?
The social problem in this connection is that to the unschooled and unreflective, certainty is both attractive and persuasive.
I like the term unreflective. It’s difficult to reflect or to serious or carefully consider. It takes some time. It takes some effort. And it’s totally clashes with American society today. Why reflect when it’s so much easier to deflect? Someone or something provides contrary evidence, just deflect it with some cheap certainties. Ah! Now we’ve come to a boggle. What if the evidence presented is from someone or something that you are certain is shady? So how does that someone or something provide evidence that they aren’t shady? HAMBURGER! Who else wants a plate?
Certainty is a double-edged sword that slashes us all the time. Look at how religious, social, and political certainties can be both helpful and detrimental? Good and evil. Strong and weak. There is one certainty that never changes: we all live on this planet together. And maybe if we really look at things from that vantage point, we can give all people a little more certainty (the good kind) in their lives.
[zing! to Francis W. Porretto]
Great Post! I’m always suspicious of certainties, mine or anyone else’s. I can’t keep from being cetain about a lot of things but I try not to cling to certainties after they’ve been proved wrong. It’s embarrassing to have to admit you were wrong but it’s more embarrassing to keep on being wrong.